All My Little Words

If I Were A Betting Man…

Posted in Uncategorized by nickchristian on January 28, 2009

…even though I haven’t seen all of the films involved, I would say that, with the exception of Wall-E, there’s absolutely no value to be found in sticking money on the favourites at this year’s Oscars. Here’s what Blue Square are offering:

Best Film
Slumdog Millionaire 1/4
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 4/1
Milk 10/1
Frost/Nixon 16/1
The Reader 20/1

Best Director
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire 1/3
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 4/1
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon 8/1
Gus Van Sant – Milk 14/1
Stephen Daldry – The Reader 14/1

Seems to me that both Best Film and Best Director categories are tossups between Slumdog and Benjamin “Forrest Gump with an Honourary Doctorate” Button. Good chance of the awards being split although it’s anyone’s guess which gets which. All things being equal I’d take the longer odds.

Best Actor In A Leading Role
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler 10/11
Sean Penn – Milk 5/4
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon 11/2
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 20/1
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor 25/1

I think Sean Pennis took this role because he heard the words “Gay” and “Biopic”, did the calculations and awarded himself the Oscar in advance. I don’t want him to get it and would be perfectly happy if any of the others did. Richard Jenkins was great in The Visitor but is probably a little unlikely; Brad Pitt at 20 is tempting but I think my 50p’s going on Langella or Rourke.

Best Actress In A Leading Role
Kate Winslet – The Reader 5/6
Meryl Streep – Doubt 11/4
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married 11/4
Melissa Leo – Frozen River 16/1
Angelina Jolie – Changeling 20/1

Conventional wisdom suggests that Winslet’s been nominated for the wrong film and, even though she stole the show with her Golden Globes, that might leave an opening for one of the others. Angelina Jolie at 20 to 1? Yes please.

Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight 1/50
Josh Brolin – Milk 16/1
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt 16/1
Robert Downey Jr – Tropic Thunder 25/1
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road 25/1

Heath Ledger at 50 to 1 on? That means that for every £1 you put on, you’ll get £1.02p back. I know he died and was great and everything but 16/1 for Josh Brolin’s just too tempting for this one. No idea if he’s any good but he was the only one from the No Country crew to miss out completely last year, and he’s been generally good in stuff of late, so why not? (Robert Downey Jr’s nomination will forever be the moment when the Academy “jumped the shark”. what the fucking fuck?)

Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona 8/11
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler 5/2
Viola Davis – Doubt 9/2
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 12/1
Amy Adams – Doubt 12/1

Looks like this is the only category where the bookies haven’t seen any of the films, haven’t heard of any of the actresses and are generally a little unwilling to go out on a limb. Heard Marisa Tomei ont he radio last week and she seems lovely, so why not her?

Best Animated Film
Wall-E 1/9
Kung Fu Panda 8/1
Bolt 9/1

If Waltz With Bashir had made it into this category it might be at least a little competitive. As it goes Wall-E’ll walk this one. Should have received a Best Film nod as well

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